Retrieve Twilight In The Desert Expressed By Matthew R. Simmons Contained In Version

dire warning that we must develop energy alternatives

In his book Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's PeakKenneth S.
Deffeyes warned us that peak oil is upon us and that what is left in the ground is just about the same as what we have already used.
He pointed to Thanksgiving Day,as the day oil hit its peak, Now another world renowned expert on oil, Matthew R, Simmons in this densely considered book, is advising us that the estimates of oil left in the ground by the largest producer of oil, Saudi Arabia, are probably inflated, and at any rate cannot be independently confirmed.


Furthermore, it is supposed that estimates by almost all oil producing countries are inflated since such inflation improves their ability to influence the market while allowing them OPEC members at least to produce more.


A question that might be asked is how do we know that there are not great fields of oil somewhere waiting to be discovered Certainly if there are, the twilight of the oilbased world economy is pushed further into the future leaving us with much less to worry about now.
Simmons answers this question for Saudi Arabia at least, He makes it clear that the possibility of any great discoveries on the Arabian peninsula "must now be deemed remote" since the land has been so thoroughly explored.
See Chapter"Coming Up Empty in New Exploration, "

Deffeyes answered this question in another way, Using logic from his mentor M, King Hubbert who predicted with startling accuracy when US production would peak earlys Deffeyes argues that what's left can be inferred from current production curves.
Because oil exploration and production has been so extensive worldwide, if the oil were there, it would have been discovered and drilled for.
This is not to say that there are not some small fields left undiscovered, There are some, no doubt, but like puddles added to a great lake, they won't affect the overall picture.


This same sort of logic can be applied to Saudi Arabia, and Simmons does indeed use such logic.
However, he goes beyond that because he believes that oil prediction simulation models see Chapter, "Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt" can fail.
Typically, he writes, an oilfield will yield aboutpercent of its oil during the first half of its producing life.
p.Almost all of the great Saudi fields are decades old,

The strange thing about this book is that while it is touted as another book predicting the end of oil, it actually argues that the situation is not entirely clear.
It is possible that there is still a lot of undiscovered oil left in Saudi Arabia in places such as "the land along the Iraq border, an unexplored area almost as large as California" and a couple of other places.
p.World wide such unexplored places are many, Nonetheless even if a lot of oil is discovered say in the middle of the Pacific Ocean or deep in the Antarctic, the cost of producing that oil will be greater than the cost of producing oil from say the great Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia where the oil gushes out of the ground almost effortlessly.


Actually, according to Simmons "effortlessly" is no longer the correct adjective to use, As oil fields grow old some help is needed to get the oil to rise to the top and flow.
Water is typically pumped into the field to get the oil to elevate, Simmons reports on the extensive use of saline water in Saudi Arabiamore evidence that there is not as much oil left as the Saudis would like us to believe.


Also a distinction must be made between pure "reserves" actual oil in the ground and "recoverable reserves" oil that is costeffective to produce.
And a further distinction must be made between grades of oil, It may be costeffective to pump the sweetest, purest grade of oil out of a field whereas lesser grades would not be worth the expense.


A weakness of the book is that, despite the words "and the World Economy" in the subtitle, which suggest an exploration of consequences and what to expect, there is next to nothing about the effect less oil than expected will have on the world economy.
Clearly, of course, and in the broadest sense, our standard of living will go down as our energy costs rise.
The subtitle is probably just a book biz editor's attempt to gain a larger readership,

Twilight in the Desert is long and extraordinarily detailed and gives the typical reader more information than perhaps would be desired.
This reader came away convinced that Simmons's main argument, that Saudi oil reserves have been exaggerated, is probably correct, but curiously his extremely balanced and careful delineation left me feeling that there is still plenty of doubt about both Saudi reserves and those world wide.
Stay tuned.

Regardless, one thing is clear, soon or late, within twenty years or fifty, we will have to retool our economies to run on something other than fossil fuels.
The sooner we get started on that, the better, If we wait too long the sudden economic shock is likely to be catastrophic,

Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
Maybe the central work dealing with the idea of peak oil being reached in the global liquid fuels market.


Saudi Arabia being one of the few nations which keeps its books closed on it's oil reserves, Matt found that he could survey the hundreds of engineering reports of consultants who had worked for Saudi Aramco to get clues as to the true nature of Saudi Oil Reserves.


His conclusion is that the aging super giant oil reserves in Saudi Arabia are on the wane, and becoming more difficult and expensive to develop.
This book gives a good insider perspective about what the oilfields and related processing plants are like in Saudi.
As one who has worked with ARAMCO in some commodities trades, this is an accurate insight for the most part.
Overall a pretty good book but Simmons seems to overlook the upcoming technologies and their impact in extracting the abandoned oil from the ground and rock.
Purely from the aspect of what is conventional, this book works, but from the aspect of what is out of the box, this book falls short.
This book is a wakeup call, The thesis is that the era of cheap oil in which we have grown up is about to end.
The chief culprits are the Saudis who are lying about their capacity to maintain their production of oil and exaggerating their proven reserves.
The result will be a profound shock to the world economy unless we take immediate steps to reduce demand for oil.
Most of the book is a field by field analysis of oil production in Saudi Arabia, A glossary and acronym list would have been helpful for nonexperts like me, Also, another chapter or two on what the coming shortfall in oil supply will mean to the world economy would have been helpful.
Perhaps a sequel is indicated, .